Quantum's dead-cat bounce says more about AI software than physics

Quantum posted its best day in weeks, $RGTI +9.8%, theme +7%, but zoom out and it's still underwater for the week. The bounce coincided with $PLTR's +8% surge and AI Software's +2.7% rip, while AI Compute barely broke even. That's the pattern of a story rotating, not capital flowing into picks-and-shovels.

Meanwhile, the funds are positioned elsewhere. Altimeter's 28.6% $NVDA, Coatue's 10.8% $TSM, Tiger's stacked hyperscaler book, none of them are chasing quantum's Friday pop. Lone Pine holds $ASML at 6.9%, not $RGTI. The smart money is betting on the infrastructure that *enables* breakthroughs, not the breakthroughs themselves.

Anthropics $65B raise at near-$1T valuation tells you where the conviction is: foundation models, not qubits. If quantum were truly rotating into favor, you'd see Robotics (+3.7% on the week) and Memory (+3.4%) give up gains. Instead, they're holding. The only trade here is that AI software multiples haven't yet reflected that Copilot and Glean are crossing $300M ARR while quantum still can't run Shor's algorithm at scale.