Morning briefing · Mon, Jul 13
Quantum is cracking while the smart money stays in AI chips
Quantum computing stocks are getting crushed this week while AI compute quietly grinds higher. The funds with the strongest track records never rotated into quantum in the first place. That is the real story.
Quantum computing stocks had a brutal week. $QBTS dropped over 33% in seven days. $QUBT fell more than 5% today alone. The quantum theme as a whole is down 8.26% on the week. That is not a dip. That is a category having a crisis of confidence.
Meanwhile, AI compute, meaning the chips and infrastructure that actually run today's AI workloads, rose 1.08% today and 2.39% on the week. Quiet, steady, no drama.
Now look at where the sharpest fund managers actually put their money. Altimeter Capital (Brad Gerstner's tech-focused fund) has 28.6% of its portfolio in $NVDA. Situational Awareness LP (Leopold Aschenbrenner's concentrated AI fund) holds $NVDA at 11.5% and $SMH, an ETF that tracks the semiconductor industry, at 14.9%. Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont's multi-billion-dollar tech fund) leans on $AVGO and $TSM, two chips-and-manufacturing giants. Not one of these funds shows a meaningful quantum position in their latest 13F filings, the quarterly disclosures that reveal exactly what big funds own.
The funds that do their homework chose the boring infrastructure trade over the quantum lottery. The market is now agreeing with them.
*When the most informed capital in the room never showed up to the quantum party, a 33% weekly drawdown is not a surprise, it is a confirmation.*