Morning briefing · Tue, Jul 28
Quantum stocks just had their best day in months, but the week tells a different story
Quantum computing stocks surged nearly 10% today as a group, with $QBTS leading at +20%. But zoom out one week and the same basket is down over 8%. One of these numbers is a trap.
Today's quantum pop looks explosive on the surface. $QBTS jumped over 20% in a single day. $RGTI added 10.5%. $IONQ gained 9.4%. The whole quantum theme (a basket of stocks tied to early-stage quantum computing companies) was up 9.68% on the day.
Here is the problem. Zoom out five days and the picture inverts. $QBTS is still down 33.57% on the week. $RGTI is down nearly 17%. The theme itself is down 8.26% over seven days. Today's bounce is a dead-cat bounce, meaning a sharp short-term recovery inside a larger downtrend, not a reversal of it.
The smart money is not piling into quantum right now. Look at the fund holdings. Situational Awareness LP (Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-focused fund) is loaded into $SMH, $NVDA, and $ORCL. Altimeter Capital (Brad Gerstner) owns $NVDA and $META. Nobody in the top-tier fund list has quantum as a named position.
Meanwhile, AI Software was up 2.98% today and up 1.89% on the week. That is a quieter, steadier move, and it is where the conviction capital is sitting.
One-day fireworks in quantum are noise. The real signal is where the weekly trend and the fund positioning agree.
*A 20% single-day bounce inside a 34% weekly hole is not a buy signal, it is a relief valve, and relief valves do not pay.*